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A rollercoaster week for the broader markets, but business as usual for clean energy assets

It has been a tumultuous week in the financial markets. It’s not the first time, and most certainly not the last time, that risky assets such as global public equities have seen such extreme short-term volatility. But it also serves as a reminder that asset classes such as renewable energy infrastructure are insulated from whipsaw action. At CleanCapital, we own and manage projects that deliver steady cash flows, underpinned by the long-term contracted sale of a basic necessity to our customers. We’ve known for some time that cumulative default rates for Infrastructure and Project Finance are significantly lower than for NFC (non-financial corporates); 1.83% vs 3.45% in the 2006-2016 period according to S&P Global Fixed Income Research. However even equity investment delivers highly predictable cash flow with annualized distributions usually within 1-2% of expected projections.

These assets have proven technology, limited operational risk, long-term residual value upside and  broad-based political and regulatory support, particularly at the state level. This week has been business as usual for CleanCapital—we’re paying attention to the broader markets but marching along to deliver steady value for our investor base.

Episode 32: Abigail Ross Hopper

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Episode 32: Abigail Ross Hopper

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On this episode, Jon has invited back Abigail Ross Hopper, President and CEO of Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). This conversation discusses the state of solar, how the industry has responded to a challenging political climate, where solar is headed and the strength it has.

Abigail oversees all of SEIA’s activities, including government affairs, research, communications, and industry leadership, and is focused on creating a marketplace where solar will constitute a significant percentage of America’s energy generation. She served formerly as the Director of the Maryland Energy Administration (MEA) and as Energy Advisor to Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley. Abby graduated Cum Laude from the Unviersity of Maryland School of Law and earned a Bachelor of Arts Degree from Dartmouth College.
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Transcript

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Jon Powers:

Welcome to Experts Only podcast sponsored by Clean Capital. You learn more cleancapital.com. I’m your host, Jon Powers. Each week, we explore the intersection of energy, innovation, and finance with leaders across the industry. Thank you so much for joining us.

Jon Powers:

Well, happy birthday to Experts Only. my name’s Jon Powers, a co-founder of clean capital and your host today for the Experts Only podcast. We’ve been on for about a year, and thanks to our listeners so far, it’s been a big year. We’ve released 30 episodes with leading experts ranging from investors, industry visionaries and innovators across the clean tech space and the financial market space. Focusing on that intersection of energy, innovation and finance, and we’ve invited back our first experts only guest Abby Ross Hopper, the president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industry Association.

Jon Powers:

It’s been quite a year for solar. We’ve invited Abby back to talk about it and really to talk about the state of solar. The industry has responded to the challenging political environment, the international trade case, the international climate agreement withdrawals, federal regulations intended to favor fossil fuels. It’s been a really busy year for the head of the industry group.

Jon Powers:

As many of our listeners will be headed out to Solar Power International, we hope that today’s conversation will help give you a sense of where the industry is and where it’s headed before you head out. For those headed to Anaheim, we’ll be doing a live recording of Experts Only, focus on the business opportunity of micro grids on Wednesday, from 2:30 to 4:00. You can find more details in the show notes, and of course at the SPI website. I hope you enjoy today’s conversation as we really talk about how the state of solar is strong and there’s a lot moving in this space, and I’m excited to have Abby join us.

Jon Powers:

Abby, thanks so much for joining us today. You’ve had a really busy year since we last spoke. And so I wanted to kick things off today with an update on some of the major activities happening in the solar industry over the last year, things that have impacted the industry. What an interesting year it’s been. We’ve had solar tariffs, 100% renewable goals in California, record breaking procurement and so much more. But I really want to step back and talk about the state of the industry. We’re a time now where solar represents 10% of electricity in five states, but it’s not all been roses. There’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty that I imagine you’ve had to wrestle with. So, how do you define the last year for solar?

Abby Ross Hopper:

Well, Jon, first of all, thank you so much for having me back. It’s an honor to be here again. Gosh, I would say the state of solar is strong, despite all of the challenges we have had, and I think we continue to show our tenacity, our ingenuity, our entrepreneurial spirit in the face of some pretty significant challenges, and I think the thing that I find the most frustrating is that while we’re doing all kinds of great things, we could have been doing so much more. If we didn’t have these headwinds, so we could have been growing at an even faster clip.

Jon Powers:

That’s interesting to hear. We see it on the investment side, there’s a whole new wave of capital coming into solar because of the growth we’ve had over the last decade. And even with the headwinds, I think there’s like a lot of exciting things going on. One of the biggest challenges, I think, that’s been new since we last spoke a year ago is the solar tariffs. And for folks that aren’t absolutely familiar with it, and can you talk a little bit about the international trade case, what happened and what impact you’re seeing in the industry today?

Abby Ross Hopper:

Sure. So when we last spoke, we were in the midst of this trade case. There was an incredible amount of uncertainty, and, as you know, that uncertainty by itself had a dampening effect on the market. And then at the end of January of this year, so January of 2018, the president decided to impose tariffs on sales and modules from anywhere in the world that were coming into the United States. So starts at 30% and drops down by 5% each year for the next four years.

Abby Ross Hopper:

And so the imposition of those tariffs had two effects. One was that they provided clarity. We knew what the rules of the road were. And so, and in an odd way, it unleashed some pent up demand, but it certainly has had a dampening effect on deployment. As I look at what our projections were before the imposition of the tariffs, we thought between 2018 and 2022, that there would be about 68.9 gigawatts installed during that period. And then once we figured out the impact of the tariffs, that went down by almost eight gigawatts, so down to 61.2. So again, 61.2 gigawatts over four years is great growth, but we are leaving eight gigawatts on the table. And that eight gigawatts is almost 9 billion of investment. Those are real dollars that are being impacted.

Jon Powers:

Real dollars, real jobs-

Abby Ross Hopper:

Absolutely.

Jon Powers:

… here in the US. I feel like in the market as a whole, there was just this, getting into October, November, December, there was just a pause, and it wasn’t so much these projects weren’t going to get built. It was how are you going to price the panels? How are we going to price the panels? We don’t know how we’re going to price the panels. Let’s just wait until this is done. And that’s that certainly, while painful, is there, and I think the markets recovering and continue to move forward.

Jon Powers:

At the federal level, I want to talk about the federal level for a second, a little bit of what’s happening at states, but at the federal level, outside of the tariffs, we’re facing an administration that seems more interested in propping up a coal industry than a really true competitive market in a sustainable economy. What do you guys expect, or what did you expect over the last year from this administration, and what have you seen being played out?

Abby Ross Hopper:

It’s a really interesting dynamic, I think, that’s being played out at the federal level, because we have strong relationships with the administration, with those in the White House, commerce, the department of energy, continuing to fund research around solar, obviously on the hill, we have great support for what we’re doing. And so there are some really good things to highlight. And yet there are efforts to also prop up on economic coal and nuclear plants, obviously, which we oppose strenuously. And it’s been an interesting time for us because we have found ourselves.

Jon Powers:

By the way, so does utilities and a lot of other interesting players.

Abby Ross Hopper:

Yeah. I was just going to say, we have this very unusual coalition opposed to those efforts. So we’re with the American Petroleum Institute and we’re with the American natural gas association as we stand up to the administration and say, “No, we want fair market rules. We want competition. We want to compete on price. Do not interfere with the market.” And that is a great position to be in, to be able to have a technology and a product that where what we really want are fair market rules, but it is also challenging because this administration continues to come up with ways to try to favor coal and nukes.

Jon Powers:

Yeah, absolutely. So, I think because of what came out of the Obama administration, which we both worked in, there was a lot of momentum in the space. A lot of the advocacy groups took stock and said, “Okay, the real fight here for a while is going to be at the state level.” You’ve seen some exciting things happening. California just recently announced 100% renewable energy goal. You’ve got states like Texas and Illinois and finally Florida with progress. It’s crazy that we have great solar in Minnesota, but very little in Florida right now, but we’re seeing progress now at the state level. What’s making that change? What do you see happening over the next year and the state level to continue to drive that change?

Abby Ross Hopper:

Yeah, that’s a great question. I would say two things. One, hat’s off to California, obviously continue to be a leader in the deployment of clean energy. And obviously the 100% renewable portfolio standard is important, but also the California Energy Commission’s decision to require solar on all new homes starting in 2020, that’s the kind of visionary leadership that I think will sweep across the country once folks understand that that decision was made to actually save consumers money, that leadership by California will be copied in other states.

Abby Ross Hopper:

So I think that’s one thing. And then the other thing is, as you know, as prices continue to decline, even in the face of tariffs and even in the face of some other market challenges, we just become more cost competitive. And so consumers are continuing to choose solar for economic reasons, not any other reasons. And we are more and more cost competitive in more and more markets, and so I think that will be the real driver of adoption, rather than policy.

Jon Powers:

Yeah. We’re seeing that actually in the corporate side. We’ve seen such a surge in corporate procurement. Corporations already purchased a record clean energy volumes in 2018, this summer surpassing all of 2017 combined with 7.2 gigawatts globally. Firms like Facebook, who this year was the biggest corporate buyer, are catching up to companies like Walmart and Apple. The demand is fantastic. What is driving that positive trend? I think you’ve hit on some of this already with pricing and certainty, and do you expect it to continue?

Abby Ross Hopper:

I do expect it to continue, as we look at that, just one other statistic to add to your litany of them, corporate procurement of utility scale accounts for about 12% of all projects and development, which is pretty amazing when you think of such a specialized segment of the market.

Abby Ross Hopper:

The other thing I think that drives it is customer demand. Customers of Walmart, of Facebook, of Google, of FedEx, of real estate companies that say, “You know what, I want my, fill in the blank, to be delivered or procured or built or manufactured with renewable energy.” And so I actually think that is going to be, continue to be a really important piece of the puzzle. And that’s why we can talk more about this, because that’s one of the reasons why we are really focused on how we communicate about solar. So that consumers, be they utilities, be they businesses, be they homeowners can articulate that desire and demand for solar energy.

Jon Powers:

So, yeah. Talk for a second about what SEIA’s doing to engage in that space. Because if you think about the industry as a whole, it’s always focused on the manufacturing side, the utility developers, even the finance, but now that is becoming such a amazing voice, both for obviously demand, but even places like Google’s going in and driving policy in states to get their data centers supported by renewables, so they’re just a whole new voice to the fight.

Abby Ross Hopper:

They’re a whole new voice to the fight. And I think if you think about both consumers moving companies and consumers moving policy makers, it’s a really important piece of the puzzle that we have to pay attention to. And so at SEIA, we are thinking very deliberately about what messages resonate with consumers, and what messages resonate with policymakers. And then how do we find ways and opportunities to amplify those messages.

Abby Ross Hopper:

So we’ve done some message testing. So testing, is it an economic message? Is it a climate change message? Is it a jobs message? What’s the most powerful thing that motivates people to speak up for solar? And also, you’ve seen all the polls. 90% of people think there should be more solar. Well, that’s great, but what do we have to do to get them to take some action, to either call a legislator or buy solar, or do something to move that intention to a demonstrable step. And so we’re doing a whole bunch of work and thinking about how we tell the solar story, and I can tell you that that jobs piece resonates incredibly strongly with both consumers and policy makers.

Jon Powers:

So what are we seeing in the jobs numbers that’s doing that?

Abby Ross Hopper:

So, I think what surprises people and they believe us, but it surprises them, is just the sheer volume. There’s 250,000 Americans employed in solar. That is just an incredible amount of people. And so we have seen that from our advocacy at the federal level. When we go into congressional offices and center offices, we always talk about how many people in your district are employed in solar and almost to a person, they’re surprised. We’ve talked to governors. They are often surprised by how many solar firms and how many solar employees are in their states. And so we talked about price and consumer, consumer choice, all being motivators of greater solar adoption and greater solar policy, but jobs are an important piece of that mix.

Jon Powers:

So just for our listeners, I think these job numbers, one of the things that is so important when SEIA or the Department of Energy or solar foundation are compiling these numbers, is get surveys, take the survey, fill out the data on your job so that they know where you are and what you’re doing, so they can help us tell the story better. I want to talk more about SEIA and the communications piece in a second, but at Solar Power International this year, SEIA’s releasing their new quarterly report. It has a little bit of mixed news for the industry. Utility and commercial and industrial installation seem to be on the rise. Residential remains flat. Talk a little bit about the data that’s in this report and some of the takeaways from this quarterly report.

Abby Ross Hopper:

Sure. So what we thought was likely to happen is playing out, post tariff, we think that 2018 total installations will be flat against 2017, which again, is a real lost opportunity, unfortunately. We do, however, interestingly enough, on the residential side, that market is expected to grow less, but not as less as before, if that makes sense. It was going gangbusters and then it declined last year and it’s stabilizing a bit, so it’s not growing as much as it had, but it’s not losing ground, to the same extent. Similarly, the utility scale and the commercial industrial space are not growing to the extent that they were. And so it is solid, but not, don’t go out and celebrate report.

Jon Powers:

Yeah. It’s interesting. With the headwinds that we’ve talked about there, it’s still positive news. It hasn’t turned into a roller coaster that folks, I think the real question now is how do we push through. The uncertainty in the Q4 of ’17 showed up in Q1 and Q2 of ’18. That’s just how the development pipelines work. But going back to the role of all the listeners, going back to how we can keep pushing these policies forward, it takes all of us to be active to continue to push this administration, our lawmakers and others to make a difference.

Abby Ross Hopper:

So I think that’s right. I think that’s right. And I think the other thing that we’ve been thinking a lot about are, where are there other opportunities to drive down cost that aren’t as dependent on policy? So obviously technology is one way that you can drive down cost that isn’t necessarily dependent on technology. What are the soft costs that we can try to get out of our process? Where can we cut costs on permitting? Yes, permitting is governmental engagement, but it’s different. That’s a different strategy than trying to pass a law or pass a tax credit or pass some sort of grant program. But saying, nope, let’s just cut down on the regulatory burden, and we can cut costs in that way.

Jon Powers:

Yeah. Interesting. Interesting. Yeah. I feel like, for people that don’t know, 64% of these projects or soft costs is one of the things Clean Capital is trying to address, but so many others are too. And all of those price and efficiencies that are happening in the market will continue to pay huge dividends on the price of solar. So let’s talk about SEIA for a second. You are closing in on your second year. This is going to be your second Solar Power International as the head of the Solar Energy Industry Association. You’re position in the organization, to be the voice of solar, you’re putting a lot of emphasis on destructive communications and marketing. I think this is really exciting news, but tell the audience why you’re doing that, and then how do you look to achieve that?

Abby Ross Hopper:

Sure. Well, it is such an honor and such a privilege to serve in the role that I do. My favorite part is talking to solar companies, and hearing about what’s happening in their marketplace, what’s happening in their town, what’s happening in their business, how their employees are growing and innovating. And so thinking about how, as the national trade association, we share that story, and share that enthusiasm and share that passion for solar is what we’re thinking about.

Abby Ross Hopper:

We can talk about all the benefits and talk about how great it is and we do that and we will continue to do that. But we are bringing in some thinkers to help us think about how we disrupt that. How do we present these messages in completely different ways and create completely different ways of demand for our product. This is a product that we’re selling. We’re selling electricity, that happens to be generated by the sun and how do we create consumer demand for our product, so that we can sell more of it, that’s exciting and interesting to do, and if we can do that effectively, we will not be so dependent on the machinations of policy and the vagrancies of different administrations. We will have a product that consumers will want and will continue to purchase. So that’s what we’re thinking about.

Jon Powers:

Yeah. That’s exciting. You face an interesting balance. You need to protect the markets that we’re in today while really trying to open up new markets. Where do you see some of those new market opportunities for solar?

Abby Ross Hopper:

A couple of places. One is certainly on the residential side, and getting cost competitive amongst greater number of states. And obviously, that depends on price and that’s some of the permitting and soft costs we talked about on the side are particularly impactful.

Abby Ross Hopper:

On the corporate demand side, the C&I side, making sure that we have opportunities for corporates to continue to purchase solar and galvanize their policy making ability, because they do have an incredibly unique voice, and are influential in ways that others can’t be.

Abby Ross Hopper:

Thinking about community solar and how we can continue to create opportunities for community solar and demand for community solar, I think that addresses some of the equities in our industry and ensuring that really everyone has access to this product that we’re selling.

Abby Ross Hopper:

And then, on the utility scale side, continuing to both be active and create markets through the regulatory process, but also to continue to drive down costs and make sure that the market rules remain fair so that we can compete in procurements and compete in all sorts of different ways so that we win all of those things.

Jon Powers:

Right. Right. So I’ve challenged the listeners to go to seia.org, S-E-I-A .org. You can actually get the reports that we talked about today, the Wood MacKenzie Power and Renewables report. SEIA rolls it out regularly. As we mentioned, it has increased its five year forecast to 1.9 gigawatts. Exciting stuff, but obviously, balanced with the fact that we’re wrestling with still lower than pre tariff announcements, but still great growth for the industry. I’d also, if you’re on your way to SPI, make sure to see Abby’s, I imagine you’re on a plethora of panels, but I know you’ve got a really exciting communications panel, and take part in what would be a really exciting conference this year. How do you see SPI changing, or how has it changed as we’re seeing, for instance, storage start to really come into play here?

Abby Ross Hopper:

Right, no, that’s a good question. So just for your listeners, my panel is Tuesday morning, so.

Jon Powers:

Tuesday morning, great.

Abby Ross Hopper:

Come Tuesday morning, I will be talking about this and with some, I think I’m the only solar person on the panel. So we have marketing people and communications people from a variety of different industries. I think we spend a lot of time talking to ourselves and we’re going to hear from people who don’t have such a vested interest in solar, and I think will just tell it like it is, so that’ll be fun. I would say, Solar Power International is really evolving to reflect the world as it is and the world as it’s going to be. So we have added Energy Storage International. Obviously, the two technologies are incredibly complimentary and many consumers, wherever they are on the value chain, are interested in demanding solar plus storage, and so we have a significant portion of our show and of our programming is around storage.

Abby Ross Hopper:

And then thinking more broadly about the energy system. I was going to say of the future, but it really is of now. How does demand response play into this? What kind of software systems are engaged in making sure this whole thing happens? What’s the role of micro grids? How about electric vehicles? How do they play into this system and can they act as storage and how does that happen and what technology is needed to make that happen? So I would say in a nutshell, the evolution is looking at the system, and not just a specific technology. And I find that exciting.

Abby Ross Hopper:

The other thing that I would be remiss if I didn’t say, is that I am hopeful that SPI is becoming more diverse. I went last year for my first one and there’s a lot of people that all look the same at SPI. And so being really intentional about making sure that we are bringing in men and women and people of all colors into our workforce and into our customer base and into our conferences and on our panels is incredibly important to me personally, but I think to our industry. We’re going to be much more innovative and much more thoughtful and much more powerful if we bring all these voices into our industry, and so hopefully, folks will continue to notice a diversification of our shows as we continue to reflect the world as it is.

Jon Powers:

Outstanding. How do you, as a pro now at SPI, any insider tips for the newbies?

Abby Ross Hopper:

Okay. Jon, I think you make yourself a bedtime and stick to it.

Jon Powers:

I like that. I think that’s great.

Abby Ross Hopper:

That is my super, not that fun, but I actually live by it pro tip.

Jon Powers:

That’s good. I love it. I love it. Abby, thank you so much for joining us and being part of the… This is really our anniversary show, as I said in the introduction, you are our first guest, and I appreciate you being on. And I’m really excited to continue to tell the positive story that solar has been and the track we’re on. And hopefully next year, we’re back having the same conversation and continuing to push the market in an exciting direction.

Abby Ross Hopper:

Great. Well, happy anniversary.

Jon Powers:

Thank you.

Abby Ross Hopper:

And thank you so much for having me.

Jon Powers:

Absolutely. Thank you so much to Abby for joining us. We look forward to seeing many of you at Solar Power International in Anaheim. As always, please continue to listen and share this podcast. If you have ideas for other guests, please share them with us. And I’d like to thank our producers, Lauren Glickman and Emily Connor, for their continued support. Go to cleancapital.com to get more episodes. And as always, I look forward to continuing the conversation.

Jon Powers:

Thanks for listening in today’s conversation. Find more episodes on cleancapital.com, iTunes, or wherever you get your podcast. If you like what you hear, be sure to subscribe and leave us a five star review. We look forward to continuing our conversation on energy, innovation and finance with you.
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Episode 27: Amory Lovins

[av_image src=’https://cleancapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/podcast-image-pageheader2.jpg’ attachment=’4329′ attachment_size=’full’ align=’center’ styling=” hover=” link=’page,249′ target=” caption=” font_size=” appearance=” overlay_opacity=’0.4′ overlay_color=’#000000′ overlay_text_color=’#ffffff’ copyright=” animation=’no-animation’ av_uid=’av-jwwgyb48′ custom_class=” admin_preview_bg=”][/av_image] [av_hr class=’invisible’ height=’20’ shadow=’no-shadow’ position=’center’ custom_border=’av-border-thin’ custom_width=’50px’ custom_border_color=” custom_margin_top=’30px’ custom_margin_bottom=’30px’ icon_select=’yes’ custom_icon_color=” icon=’ue808′ font=’entypo-fontello’ av_uid=’av-jwwgzkyu’ custom_class=” admin_preview_bg=”] [av_textblock size=” font_color=” color=” av-medium-font-size=” av-small-font-size=” av-mini-font-size=” av_uid=’av-jwwgxszg’ custom_class=” admin_preview_bg=”]

Episode 27: Amory Lovins

[/av_textblock] [av_hr class=’invisible’ height=’10’ shadow=’no-shadow’ position=’center’ custom_border=’av-border-thin’ custom_width=’50px’ custom_border_color=” custom_margin_top=’30px’ custom_margin_bottom=’30px’ icon_select=’yes’ custom_icon_color=” icon=’ue808′ font=’entypo-fontello’ av_uid=’av-jwwgzkyu’ custom_class=” admin_preview_bg=”] [av_textblock size=” font_color=” color=” av-medium-font-size=” av-small-font-size=” av-mini-font-size=” av_uid=’av-jwl4lsb2′ custom_class=” admin_preview_bg=”] On this episode, Jon Powers sits down with Amory Lovins, co-founder, Chief Scientist, and Chairman Emeritus of the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI). This conversation covers topics from the start of Amory’s career, the founding of RMI and what’s currently happening internationally in India and China. Amory is a leading innovator on energy and environmental issues. Time has named him one of the world’s 100 most influential people. His current work explores how to make the integrative design the new normal. RMI is an independent, non-partisan, non-profit organization that engages businesses, communities, and institutions, as well as entrepreneurs to accelerate the adoption of market-based solutions to help shift from fossil fuels to renewables. [/av_textblock] [av_hr class=’invisible’ height=’20’ shadow=’no-shadow’ position=’center’ custom_border=’av-border-thin’ custom_width=’50px’ custom_border_color=” custom_margin_top=’30px’ custom_margin_bottom=’30px’ icon_select=’yes’ custom_icon_color=” icon=’ue808′ font=’entypo-fontello’ av_uid=’av-jwwgzkyu’ custom_class=” admin_preview_bg=”] [av_textblock size=” font_color=” color=” av-medium-font-size=” av-small-font-size=” av-mini-font-size=” av_uid=’av-jwwh5253′ custom_class=” admin_preview_bg=”]

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[/av_textblock] [av_textblock size=” font_color=” color=” av-medium-font-size=” av-small-font-size=” av-mini-font-size=” av_uid=’av-jwl43nfd’ custom_class=” admin_preview_bg=”] [/av_textblock] [av_hr class=’default’ icon_select=’yes’ icon=’ue808′ position=’center’ shadow=’no-shadow’ height=’50’ custom_border=’av-border-thin’ custom_width=’50px’ custom_margin_top=’30px’ custom_margin_bottom=’30px’ custom_border_color=” custom_icon_color=” av-desktop-hide=” av-medium-hide=” av-small-hide=” av-mini-hide=” id=” custom_class=” template_class=” av_uid=’av-7kbjc’ sc_version=’1.0′] [av_textblock size=” av-medium-font-size=” av-small-font-size=” av-mini-font-size=” font_color=” color=” id=” custom_class=” template_class=” av_uid=’av-ksgfff76′ sc_version=’1.0′ admin_preview_bg=”] Transcript [/av_textblock] [av_textblock size=” av-medium-font-size=” av-small-font-size=” av-mini-font-size=” font_color=” color=” id=” custom_class=” template_class=” av_uid=’av-ksgfh0qr’ sc_version=’1.0′ admin_preview_bg=”] Jon Powers: Welcome to “Experts Only Podcast” sponsored by CleanCapital. Learn more on cleancapital.com. I’m your host Jon Powers. Each week we explore the intersection of energy, innovation, and finance with leaders across the industry. Thank you so much for joining us. Jon Powers: Welcome back to “Experts Only Podcast” where we explore the intersection of energy, innovation and finance. My name is Jon Powers. I’m your co-host and one of the co-founders of CleanCapital that sponsors this podcast. Check out cleancapital.com and learn more about our new billion dollar partnership with CarVal Investors. Today, we are interviewing Amory Lovins, who’s the co-founder and chief scientist, as well as the chairman of Emeritus of Rocky Mountain Institute. Amory is one of the leading figures and really a godfather in the space for many of us who are focused on things like distributed generation. Jon Powers: If you don’t know Rocky Mountain Institute, RMI is an independent nonpartisan nonprofit organization that engages businesses, communities and institutions, as well as entrepreneurs to accelerate the adoption of market-based solutions to help us shift from fossil fuels to energy efficiency and renewables. He’s also an energy advisor to firms and governments worldwide. He’s authored 31 books, more than 600 papers. I’ve quoted many of those papers or referenced them in my own work. Jon Powers: He’s an integrative designer of super efficient buildings, factories, and vehicles. He’s received extensive recognition for his work, including the MacArthur and Ashoka Fellowships and 12 honorary doctorates. Time, even named Amory one of the world’s most influential people, 100 most influential people and foreign policy, one of the top 100 global thinkers. I’m really looking forward to this conversation today. We’re going to cover a variety of issues from how he got interested in the space, started RMI, what’s happening internationally, and the work in Indian China today. Jon Powers: I’ll warn you, this is a little bit longer episode to our normal episodes, but it really is a fascinating conversation. We thank you so much for joining us on today’s “Experts Only Podcast.” You’ve had quite a prolific career in energy and you’re widely considered as one of the leading innovators in the space. Time has named you one of the world’s 100 most influential folks, you’re seen as a global thinker, but if you step back before you got into working on energy and environmental issues, what drove you into the space? What was your motivation to get started when you started writing even back in the 60s? Amory Lovins: Well, in the 60s, it was already obvious that the world was headed for serious problems among other things, the tangle of issues from population resources, environment, economy development and security. As I was writing my first professional paper on climate change in 1968, that’s now 50 years ago, it became ever clearer that energy was a master key for unlocking many of those puzzles or at least offering better ways to think about them. That has turned out to be exactly the fruitful approach that I made my life’s work and, and it’s worked well so far. Jon Powers: Yes, absolutely. You’ve seen such phenomenal transformations over that time. We’re obviously seeing such a great surge right now in renewables, but the technology is not new. Jimmy Carter put solar panels on the White House 40 years ago. Amory Lovins: They all stand there, they’re still alive and well providing hot water to the dining hall cafeteria at Unity College in Maine. Jon Powers: Really? Amory Lovins: Yes. Amory Lovins: They were rescued from a GSA warehouse where the Reagan administration had stowed them and not allowed them to say it was there, but Unity College got curious about where they were and tracked them down. The guy said, “Oh, I’m so glad you called. We can’t give these things away because they’re government property.” Unity guy said, “Oh, but can you give it to a nonprofit?” Yes. “Why can’t you get the truck here? Jon Powers: That’s amazing. One of my fondest memories of working in the White House was getting the panels put back on the top and actually getting to go up and see them up there. It was an amazing long overdue accomplishment. Amory Lovins: Yes, well, we co-ed the greening of the White House for president Clinton and a lot of good things have been underway ever since. Jon Powers: Absolutely. In that career, you’ve seen a lot of transformation. What’s excited you, what’s scared you, how do you see where we are today versus writing your first paper on climate change 50 years ago, 1968? Amory Lovins: Well, in those days, renewables were hardly even a gleam in the eye. Although the Paley Commission under the Truman administration, I believe had recommended emphasis on renewables. Thomas Edison, foresaw, they would be a big deal, but they were considered so unrealistic that when my ’76 foreign affairs paper reframing the energy problem referred to solar, it didn’t mean photovoltaic it meant solar thermal. Jon Powers: Interesting. Amory Lovins: Energy efficiency in ’76 was considered probably impractical or unnecessary because after all we live in a market economy, so we must already be using energy with perfect efficiency. It is quite amazing what people said in those days that if energy use grew slower than GDP, we’d be back to caves and candles. They really said that stuff. Therefore, just making the case that one could ring more work out of the energy and consider other kinds of supply, other scales of supply and not all electric supply necessarily, but matched to the quality needed for the job that was all heresy. Amory Lovins: Well, as it turns out, the rate of improvement of energy efficiency has tracked very closely to what that article suggested. Renewables however, were held back 20 odd years by a series of policy choices and are only now doing what they should have been doing back then. If you go to rmi.org and look up Solutions Journal last summer, you’ll find a paper, a 40-year retrospective on that article about what worked, what didn’t and why, and what we learned or should have learned from it. But broadly speaking, we’re now getting over twice the work from each unit of energy that we did in the mid 70s. Amory Lovins: An eighth of the world’s electricity is now from modern renewables, those other than big hydro and that’s creeping up one odd percentage point a year. Those sources last year had 61% of the global market for new electric capacities and growing fast. They’re heading for whether they got over twice as much investment as all fossil fuel generation heading for three quarters of the total over the not many years. Now it’s clear that we’re headed for peak oil and probably peak gas on the demand side and the coal is already right around here. Jon Powers: Great. I think we’re witnessing today. Let me ask you, I’m going to get into the market forces and what’s happening in the space but for doing that, you are the co-founder of an amazingly influential organization, the Rocky Mountain Institute, I think folks don’t know RMI. They need to check it out. It’s a group that as I first got into this space, I started getting interested in clean energy when I was deployed to Iraq as part of the Army’s first armor division in 2003, 2004, came home and had no idea the context. Jon Powers: I just understood the idea around energy security and began to study and reading actually a lot of your work at RMI, influenced my next step in my career, which led me back to the Pentagon and working at these issues across the army. I was the Army’s first special advisor on energy, Amory Lovins: For heavens’ sake. Jon Powers: Yes, it was a fascinating world. Amory Lovins: I spent the last 20 or 30 years helping shape military energy policy around efficiency, renewables, and resilience that’s going very well. Jon Powers: I think people that don’t know the space don’t recognize that the army manages three times the square footers of Walmart and because of the policies that many like yourself are advocating for. They’re doing really innovative stuff on renewables, on energy efficiency, on AVs, even in the headwinds that sometimes they face. Amory Lovins: Indeed, all the army services are the national leaders within our government on efficiency, renewables. Jon Powers: Absolutely. Stepping back, what drove you to start RMI? What was the original mission and how has it changed over time? Amory Lovins: Well, it was clear in ’82 when my then wife Hunter and I were starting up RMI that the conventional assumptions about politics and political evolution were not going to hold and that there was a great need for an independent voice, which we thought would be a handful of people. We now have about 200. That could fit all the moving parts together, that could do serious thought leadership practice and integration of a clean, prosperous, secure, low carbon energy future. The premises we set it up on, have proved valid. Amory Lovins: One of those is to remain rigorously apolitical and non-partisan, we work with everybody. We are practitioners, not theorists. We do solutions, not problems. We do transformation, not incrementalism. We say exactly what we think. That’s turned out to be a useful approach. I think Rocky Mountain Institute has earned some respect and been able to do good work because of those core values. We now are active as much abroad as at home, helped with the transformation of Chinese energy policy. Amory Lovins: We’re now playing a similar role with innovative mobility strategy for India and doing everything from rural electrification in Africa and the transition for Caribbean island nations, from diesel to renewables efficiency, all the way to efficient aviation and marine shipping. Our core activities have long been with equal depth in all the energy using sectors, making buildings, mobility, industry, and electricity, radically efficient, and the renewable supply, diverse, distributed, dynamic, and resilient. Jon Powers: I think being here in Washington, D.C., there are no lack of think tanks, where folks publish academic policy positions and will often write… Amory Lovins: We don’t do that. Jon Powers: Exactly. I think that’s. Amory Lovins: We’re “think and do tank”. The important word and, and I would add a scale tank as well. We go make stuff big. We don’t just suggest it. Jon Powers: Yes. What I find interesting with RMI is that in the startup world, I meet people who talk about incubators. You can look at so many things that have spun out of RMI, whether it be black or energy and other really amazing initiatives that started off being incubated within the walls there and now are making tremendous transformational change as they’ve moved out. It’s something that you don’t see come out of the Think Tanks. I love their “Do tank” phrase. Amory Lovins: Well, the important word is “and”, and “think and do.” I think there’s a Chinese proverb to the effect that thinking without doing as a daydream doing without thinking, I bear. We are also an archetype of the entrepreneurial non-profit in the earlier years, we earned 40 to 70% of our revenue from programmatic enterprise that supports our charitable mission, but does it using business tools and methods. Amory Lovins: We’ve had something like six or eight for-profits spinoffs about four nonprofits spin-offs one or two spin ins and more of that going on all the time, because we’re now figuring out how to animate more of these market affiliates that will carry out our mission for fun and profit, and then feed some revenue back to the nonprofit mothership. We also, from the beginning have been active in policy. Policy is important. Policy matters. Amory Lovins: You got to get the rules right, but most of our effort has from the beginning focused on transformation that is business led and market-driven. That turned out to be a good call because that’s where most of the action is and it didn’t seem to us to make sense, to go into for a largely owned by incumbent industries and try to argue against what they’re good at and what they’re comfortable doing, but rather to enlist both incumbents and insertions in a creative tension with each other to do new things that would be of advantage to them. Jon Powers: Right. It seems with… It’s interesting that touching because the idea of what really trying to continuously transform that the goalposts keep moving. In a very positive way, if you think about it over the course of when you started in 1982. There’s been such acceleration the last 10 years or so in the energy space, post the Paris pull out of this administration, you had corporate giants stepping forward saying, no, we’re still in because this makes economic sense. Jon Powers: We’ve got entire offices around how to purchase energy now for Google and for apple and for eBay and Walmart. You all have really helped see that and set, but the goalpost for RMI keep moving. How do you all from a leadership perspective, try to look out and figure out where you should be playing next? Amory Lovins: How to skate, where the puck’s going to be? Jon Powers: Yes, exactly. Amory Lovins: Well by really being blessed with extraordinary people. We seem to have some gravitational attraction to pull in more of them that we can deal with actually, but the inflow of talent has been most gratifying. That’s what’s really been the foundation of our success so far. Also of course, having people with real field experience and strong connections and insight in the industries that we’re trying to change because we’re trying to move a tens of trillions of dollars economic activity on a budget of about 40 million. Amory Lovins: We need really strong leverage to do that, and that comes from being able to present recent and compelling business cases. One of the challenges we face is there are so many shiny objects attracting us in the insurgence space that we mustn’t forget to devote some serious effort to helping incumbents to change so that at least, the highly adaptive ones can be hived off from the herd and we won’t be fighting all of them. Some will be helping lead the way with their remarkable skills. Amory Lovins: We’re working with a number of major energy companies now in various sectors to help them figure out how to apply their skills and assets, do graceful exits from others, activities that aren’t so promising. We’ve also had good fortune with what’s called eLab energy, electricity innovation laboratory, which has now for some years provided a safe place where incumbents and insurgents can meet and create value together rather than just lobbing grenades in public. Jon Powers: Interesting. With eLab and going back the, I think insurgents and incumbents concept with all the… I don’t want to really use the word disruption, but the transformation that’s happening around… Amory Lovins: Oh, it is very disruptive. Jon Powers: It is very disruptive. Around distributed generation we’ve got really just such major players in the private sector now no longer relying on just paying the utility bill, but actually putting really sophisticated purchasing power forward and leveraging their strengths. Seeing Microsoft doing massive solar in places like Virginia, where I live in Virginia, and there’s very little solar to be had as a off-taker. They come in and say, “Hey, we’re going to bring these data centers here if you do X.” Jon Powers: I think we’re well aware of Google, but at the same point, you have the utility status quo trying to adjust to this. You have spinoffs like energy impact partners, which is a really interesting venture capital pool they put together to look at new technologies. Does RMI play a role at all of bringing those forces together and finding ways that to find the solutions for both? Amory Lovins: Very much so. Our business renewables center members, several hundred firms accounted for upwards of 96% of the corporate renewable energy purchases last year. Through that forum, we’re able to share best practices, do bulk deals for companies that want to buy renewable energy, both to save money and avoid price volatility and to be doing the right thing. Which is good for reputation, recruitment, retention, motivation of their talent, and doing what their customers expect of a responsible company. Amory Lovins: There are very strong, direct and indirect business reasons now. It’s not just the renewables are cheaper, although that’s a strong motivation. It’s not that unusual for a creative and a far-sighted CEO to be moved by the spirit at some conference to say, yes, we’re going to go all renewable by the year X and then comes back home and word gets around and the purchasing people say, oh my God, I don’t know how to buy that stuff. I just don’t know how to buy kilowatt hours and MCF of gas help. Amory Lovins: Then we hook him up with others who’ve been there, done that and made their first rodeo. There’s a lot of wonderful information sharing going on. We’ve had the good fortune to be in it through creation of the automotive transformation, similar transitions in everything from semiconductors in data centers to older industries and of course the birth and growth of green buildings. A concept Bill Browning invented around the early 90s in our shop and by exploiting indirect benefits of happier, healthier, more productive people in efficient green buildings. Amory Lovins: It’s wonderful to see the green and efficient building movement spread around the world and added, it matters of course to energy because buildings use three quarters of U.S. electricity. Only a quarter goes to industry. There’s a lot going on that we’re finding from unexpected interactions between sectors that aren’t even adjacent to each other. For example, the smartphone, the need to miniaturize energy storage. The premia that the phone makers will pay for longer battery life have driven huge technical advances in batteries. Amory Lovins: Those then made it affordable to put batteries in cars, giving rise to the likes of Tesla and everybody else practically every automaker has a big lineup of electric cars on or about to enter the market. Some of them are awfully attractive, but then when you make that many batteries, they get cheap for everybody, which means you can start to pair them up with variable renewables, photovoltaics and wind. Amory Lovins: Not that you need to do that because there’s about nine other ways to integrate those variable renewables reliably into the grid, but batteries are one way to do it. Of course, when that happens, you start to get further innovation, which in turn can be the end of thermal power stations, because it will shortly be so cheap to make your rooftop solar power even in Virginia 24/7. That is not even clear, there’ll be that much use for the grid anymore. It could get it’s strategist like phone company copper did. Jon Powers: How do we continue to bring the utilities forward? There’s no doubt in being here in Virginia, that there’s enough solar, enough sun to create solar and the challenge is a policy fight in Richmond with dominion energy. We literally look across the river and to Washington D.C., it’s one of the hottest markets in the country for solar. How do we continue to educate these utilities that provide them new business models really so that they can figure out how to stay active in this space? Amory Lovins: Well, they have several big issues. First of all, they’re traditionally regulated in a way that rewards them for selling you more energy and penalizes them for cutting your bill. There’s a way to fix that called decoupling and shared savings that about 16 states, I believe have done for electricity about 20 for gas, more on the way and Edison Electric Institute, American Gas Association support that reform and more utilities are wanting it because it helps protect their revenues from erosion as efficiency and renewables cut into their own sales. Amory Lovins: That then raises an issue that goes back to Thomas Edison. When he set up the electricity business, he did not sell kilowatt hours, he sold light. He would charge you a penny to run a lab for an hour because as an investor, he knew people would come up with much more efficient lamps. When they did, he wanted that to cut his costs of producing the lighting service, not his revenues. He was overruled in 1892 and ever since then, utilities have been selling electrons as a commodity. The more efficiently you use the electrons, the less money they make, They’re cutting their revenues, not their costs. Amory Lovins: The whole revenue models upside down, and the same thing is true. The hydrocarbon industries, which cells molecules, when what you want is services like comfort and mobility. That’s a really big issue that very few of the companies have come to grips with yet. Of course, then efficiency in using energy is undergoing the same radical change that renewables have done and the same analytic methods and models that failed to predict the one or failing to foresee the other. Amory Lovins: Most people don’t realize that very large, even as much as tenfold energy savings in buildings and factories and vehicles now can cost less than normal inefficiency. The more you invest in efficiency, the more you save but the less it costs. In other words, expanding returns not diminishing returns. That is quite commonly found out through what we call integrative design. That’s hardly on anybody’s radar because it doesn’t fit conventional economic theory any more than the renewable revolution did. Jon Powers: Can you talk a little bit… When you say integrated design, are we talking about integrated energy management system? Amory Lovins: No. A simple example. I’m a passive solar banana farmer near Aspen, Colorado, where it used to go to minus 47 F on occasion. We’ve had as much as 39 days of continuous cloud in midwinter, but our house doesn’t have a furnace. It’s a passively heated and was forerunner of the passive house movement. But it was slightly cheaper to build that way because the stuff that got rid of the heating system cost less than we saved by not putting in the heating system. I’m talking about upfront construction costs, not subsequent savings. Amory Lovins: The office from which I’m talking to you does the same thing, roughly normal construction costs like any modern, passive building, no mechanicals, except air to air heat exchange, no normal heating or cooling equipment, and just provides passive comfort. Ultimately, everything will be built that way, it is now becoming mandatory in California and in some other parts of the world. The integrative design optimizes the building as a whole system for multiple benefits rather than a component like insulation for single benefits. I’m going to pick a simpler example even. Amory Lovins: Even if you make the worlds pipes and ducts fat, short and straight, rather than skinny, long, and crooked, you save so much friction and therefore so much pump and fan energy that you would displace roughly half the world’s coal-fired electricity. You’d recover your investment in typically less than a year in retrofit, less than zero in new builds. Yet this is not in anybody’s forecast because it’s not a technology, it’s a design method and those people don’t think of design the way we choose and combine technologies as a scaling vector, but it is. Amory Lovins: We’ve shown how to do that in buildings, vehicles, mobility systems, industry in sufficient depth and detail, that it is really hard to argue with, but you then run squarely into economic theory that says the more of anything you buy or do the more it costs increasing marginal costs. If you try to model the opposite, expanding, not diminishing returns, it makes your models blow up and your head surges so you don’t want to think about it. This is now a major kind of confrontation brewing between economic theory and engineering reality. Jon Powers: Interesting. A conversation to be had with ASHRAE and USGBC and then some of the stuff? Amory Lovins: Yes, there are a lot of people there but they’re not the ones writing the economic forecast. The bad news about climate is that it’s changing faster and less linearly than the conservative model said and the good news is that the same models greatly understated the scope for profitable mitigation. We can get to a two or even one and a half degree trajectory, not at a cost, but at a profit that ought to change the politics. Jon Powers: Yeah. I actually would like to do a whole different conversation on that because I think I completely agree with you. It’s the heart of what CleanCapital has been focusing on and we are driving to educate more folks in the investor space. Say, there’s such a great effort around the divest movement for instance, but let’s turn on a dime and say, look, it’s equally as profitably investing into solar or some other spaces it is, and what you’re doing in the real estate space, for instance. Jon Powers: I want to ask two final questions. One, looking at the work that you’re doing internationally, we often talk about ideas and innovation we can export in terms of clean energy to China, India but I think there’s so much knowledge that we can import on what they’re doing. Is there anything that you’ve seen that really stands out that we should be trying to replicate here at home? Amory Lovins: Yes. Where to start on that one? Brains are evenly distributed, one per person as says the Pincho is remark. Therefore, most of the brains are not in the rich countries. Only half are in the heads of men. Most are in the heads of poor people who are very resourceful and we have a lot to learn if we have the humility to look at what other people are coming up with. China is making extraordinary world-leading progress in both efficiency and renewables. We’re seeing very exciting developments at both a national and a state and city level in India in rethinking personal mobility and making it shared connected and electric, and also fair and accessible to everybody. Amory Lovins: Some of the technical and policy innovations there, I think will have a big influence in other countries. That’s why our big report on that with the prime ministers’ strategy shop called NITI is called India Leaps Ahead, because that’s exactly what this could produce. We are also seeing exciting innovations in some of the poorest countries that are leapfrogging over the phases of energy development that countries like ours had to go through that are going straight to very efficient, renewable provision of basic services. That has huge implications for bringing a decent life to all and helping to reduce both injustice and conflict in the world. Jon Powers: Absolutely. Again, that could be a whole different podcast and conversation. I actually did my master’s thesis on Chinese energy security, fascinated on what’s happening there versus the five-year plans and how they differ from the way we approach things here but there’s one final question. I sort of ask this to all folks on the podcast. You had such a prolific, an impactful career and if you go back to yourself at a young age, for instance, like coming out of high school and you could sit down and have coffee, what advice would you give? Amory Lovins: Well, first of all, don’t take any crap from the educational administrators who want you to study just one thing. Most of the world’s big problems come from trying to do just one thing without understanding how it’s connected to everything else. Jump the fences, walk out of the grass and go learn what you want to, what you think you need and the more disparate your learning is, the more effective you’re likely to be. Amory Lovins: Second, for a smart, motivated person like you, there are few, if any disciplines that you cannot learn as much about in six months as most, not all, but most people in the field know. That was true even before the internet. Once you understand that, it’s profoundly liberating because you can take the initiative to go figure out what you need to learn, what you need to do, what you need to, and don’t let anybody keep you down or hold you back. Jon Powers: I’ll tell you quick to just put a story behind that. When I was working at the Pentagon and first got interested in the finance piece, we were doing large-scale power purchase agreements. I didn’t understand anything around finance. I don’t have an MBA. I literally went and bought corporate finance for dummies to start to read and understand it. I had the similar role at the White House to set up a clean energy finance working group to get smarter at it and here we go. Now I’m running a FinTech company, but it all works out. We thank you so much for your time, for your commitment to the space and the mission and all the work you’ve done. I really am honored to have you on today. Amory Lovins: Well, honor to be here. Thank you very much for all you do. Jon Powers: Thank you. Amory Lovins: Bye. Jon Powers: Well honored to have Amory Lovin’s on today’s episode. We appreciate you taking the time to listen. You can learn more about CleanCapital at cleancapital.com and find more “Experts Only Podcast” and if you have thoughts or ideas, please let us know. I wanted to thank our producers, Emily Connor, and as well as Lauren Glickman and wanted to thank you for listening. I look forward to continuing the conversation. Jon Powers: Thanks for listening in today’s conversation. Find more episodes on cleancapital.com, iTunes or wherever you get your podcasts. You like what you hear, be sure to subscribe and leave us a five star review. We look forward to continuing our conversation on energy, innovation and finance with you. 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