The IRA Two Years Later & Our Unpredictable Future

  • August 23, 2024
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  • Thomas Byrne, Chief Executive Officer

This month, our industry marked the two-year anniversary of the passage of the most consequential piece of climate legislation in history: the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). As we navigate another volatile election season, the clean energy industry finds itself at another potential inflection point.  

The federal government’s surprising, 11th-hour passage of the behemoth IRA package was a shot in the arm for an industry already on track for dramatic growth. The certainty afforded to us by the extension of the investment tax credit (ITC) and production tax credit (PTC) alone meant our friends at Wood Mackenzie had to scrap their carefully considered analyses in favor of a bullish new outlook. Now we are breaking record after record: the 11.8 GWdc of capacity installed in Q1 2024–a record first quarter–was also the industry’s second-best quarter in history next to Q4 2023. According to E2, more than 330 new clean energy projects have been announced since the passage of the IRA.   

Those of us who have been riding the ‘solar coaster’ for years know that developers and builders of renewable energy projects – and the banks and investors who back them – need certainty more than anything. With the certainty of the IRA has come an astounding outcome: more than $500 billion in clean energy investments have been announced since the passage of the IRA, and a record-shattering $303.3 billion in energy transition financing was deployed in the U.S. solely in 2023. In the first quarter of 2024 alone, private investment in clean energy and electric vehicles reached a record $71 billion. At CleanCapital, we’ve seized this moment to expand our scope, identifying new ways to put our capital to work to get more clean megawatts on the grid faster.   

Despite all this rosy news, the halcyon post-IRA days may not be here to stay. Earlier this week, my colleagues Jon Powers and Julia Bell hosted a webinar with experts from SEIA and political advisors Boundary Stone Partners to preview the outcomes we can expect following the presidential election in November. The difference is stark: while Vice President Harris has not released an energy platform, it’s expected that she will be a staunch supporter of Joe Biden’s signature policy; a second Trump term, by contrast, would likely bring efforts to repeal portions of the IRA or undercut it through executive action. Though a full rollback of the clean energy portions of the IRA is unlikely given the benefits of the IRA are enjoyed by red and blue districts alike, a hostile administration could nibble at the fringes and make it harder to get things done. While the transition to clean energy is unstoppable, we can ill-afford to slow it down by undercutting the landmark legislation that has been the beacon globally to thwarting the climate crisis. 

 

Watch now: Defending the IRA - Election Season Scenario Planning

In September, many of us will convene at RE+ in Anaheim and Climate Week in New York. It is an exciting period, enhanced by a Presidential election. I’m calling upon my colleagues across the industryregardless of party or candidateto advocate for the IRA, ensuring that clean energy projects continue to advance in earnest across the country, and that this critical sector, along with the high-quality American jobs it supports, maintains its momentum.